Chelsea
#5
19
30
Actual vs Expected Performance
Performance Variance
-0.4Results match underlying performance - sustainable
Likelihood that performance will revert to expected levels. Higher = more likely to regress (for overperformers) or improve (for underperformers).
How unusual this variance is compared to all teams. Above +2 or below -2 indicates extreme performance deviation from the mean.
Probability this variance is due to random chance. Below 0.05 (*) means statistically significant - not just luck.
Understanding These Statistics
Regression Probability
High % (70%+) = very likely to change. Low % (20%-) = performance is sustainable. This tells you if the current form will last.
Z-Score
Measures extremeness. +2.0 = top 2.5% (extremely lucky). -2.0 = bottom 2.5% (extremely unlucky). Between -1 and +1 = normal.
P-Value
Below 0.05 marked with * = less than 5% chance this is random. Above 0.05 = could just be normal variance, not a real pattern.
What This Means in Plain English
Chelsea has earned 30 points from 19 matches (position #5).
However, based on the quality of chances they've created (32.6 xG) and conceded (26.2 xGA), statistical models predict they should have closer to 30.4 points (position #6).
This means their results closely match their underlying performance quality. They're getting roughly the points their chance creation and defense deserves. This is sustainable - no major regression or improvement expected based on luck alone.
Bottom line: Current position accurately reflects performance quality. Any improvement will require genuine tactical or squad upgrades, not just waiting for luck to change.
Strategic Recommendations
Key Insight: Expected position based on xG is #6, current position is #5.