Manchester City
#2
19
41
High Regression Risk - Results Flattering Performance
Warning: This team is getting better results than their underlying performance suggests they should. They have 41 points but based on chances created/allowed (xG), they should have closer to 36.7 points.
Why this matters: The 4.3 point difference is likely due to unsustainable finishing luck or goalkeeping. When performance normalizes (regression to mean), they could drop 3-4 points (58% probability).
Actual vs Expected Performance
Performance Variance
+4.3Getting 4.3 more points than performance suggests - unsustainable (high regression risk)
Likelihood that performance will revert to expected levels. Higher = more likely to regress (for overperformers) or improve (for underperformers).
How unusual this variance is compared to all teams. Above +2 or below -2 indicates extreme performance deviation from the mean.
Probability this variance is due to random chance. Below 0.05 (*) means statistically significant - not just luck.
Understanding These Statistics
Regression Probability
High % (70%+) = very likely to change. Low % (20%-) = performance is sustainable. This tells you if the current form will last.
Z-Score
Measures extremeness. +2.0 = top 2.5% (extremely lucky). -2.0 = bottom 2.5% (extremely unlucky). Between -1 and +1 = normal.
P-Value
Below 0.05 marked with * = less than 5% chance this is random. Above 0.05 = could just be normal variance, not a real pattern.
What This Means in Plain English
Manchester City has earned 41 points from 19 matches (position #2).
However, based on the quality of chances they've created (36.0 xG) and conceded (20.2 xGA), statistical models predict they should have closer to 36.7 points (position #2).
This means they're getting 4.3 more points than their performance suggests - likely due to exceptional finishing (converting low-quality chances) or outstanding goalkeeping (saving shots that typically go in). This level of luck is difficult to sustain. Expect results to worsen as finishing/goalkeeping normalizes.
Bottom line: Don't be fooled by current position. Performance quality suggests a drop is coming. Avoid panic buys - the issue isn't lack of talent, it's unsustainable luck running out.
Strategic Recommendations
High Risk: Performance may regress to mean. Focus on underlying xG metrics.
Key Insight: Expected position based on xG is #2, current position is #2.