Tottenham
#12
19
26
High Regression Risk - Results Flattering Performance
Warning: This team is getting better results than their underlying performance suggests they should. They have 26 points but based on chances created/allowed (xG), they should have closer to 20.5 points.
Why this matters: The 5.5 point difference is likely due to unsustainable finishing luck or goalkeeping. When performance normalizes (regression to mean), they could drop 4-5 points (69% probability).
Actual vs Expected Performance
Performance Variance
+5.5Getting 5.5 more points than performance suggests - unsustainable (high regression risk)
Likelihood that performance will revert to expected levels. Higher = more likely to regress (for overperformers) or improve (for underperformers).
How unusual this variance is compared to all teams. Above +2 or below -2 indicates extreme performance deviation from the mean.
Probability this variance is due to random chance. Below 0.05 (*) means statistically significant - not just luck.
Understanding These Statistics
Regression Probability
High % (70%+) = very likely to change. Low % (20%-) = performance is sustainable. This tells you if the current form will last.
Z-Score
Measures extremeness. +2.0 = top 2.5% (extremely lucky). -2.0 = bottom 2.5% (extremely unlucky). Between -1 and +1 = normal.
P-Value
Below 0.05 marked with * = less than 5% chance this is random. Above 0.05 = could just be normal variance, not a real pattern.
What This Means in Plain English
Tottenham has earned 26 points from 19 matches (position #12).
However, based on the quality of chances they've created (17.8 xG) and conceded (25.0 xGA), statistical models predict they should have closer to 20.5 points (position #16).
This means they're getting 5.5 more points than their performance suggests - likely due to exceptional finishing (converting low-quality chances) or outstanding goalkeeping (saving shots that typically go in). This level of luck is difficult to sustain. Expect results to worsen as finishing/goalkeeping normalizes.
Bottom line: Don't be fooled by current position. Performance quality suggests a drop is coming. Avoid panic buys - the issue isn't lack of talent, it's unsustainable luck running out.
Strategic Recommendations
Critical Risk: Monitor closely for regression. Avoid panic decisions if performance normalizes.
Key Insight: Expected position based on xG is #16, current position is #12.