West Ham
#18
19
14
Improvement Potential - Unlucky But Creating Quality
Good news: This team is getting worse results than their performance deserves. They have 14 points but based on chances created/allowed (xG), they should have closer to 18.1 points.
Why this matters: The 4.0 point gap suggests poor finishing luck or goalkeeping errors. Natural improvement likely as performance normalizes - potential to gain 2-3 points without major changes to tactics or squad.
Actual vs Expected Performance
Performance Variance
-4.0Getting 4.0 fewer points than performance suggests - unlucky (natural improvement expected)
Likelihood that performance will revert to expected levels. Higher = more likely to regress (for overperformers) or improve (for underperformers).
How unusual this variance is compared to all teams. Above +2 or below -2 indicates extreme performance deviation from the mean.
Probability this variance is due to random chance. Below 0.05 (*) means statistically significant - not just luck.
Understanding These Statistics
Regression Probability
High % (70%+) = very likely to change. Low % (20%-) = performance is sustainable. This tells you if the current form will last.
Z-Score
Measures extremeness. +2.0 = top 2.5% (extremely lucky). -2.0 = bottom 2.5% (extremely unlucky). Between -1 and +1 = normal.
P-Value
Below 0.05 marked with * = less than 5% chance this is random. Above 0.05 = could just be normal variance, not a real pattern.
What This Means in Plain English
West Ham has earned 14 points from 19 matches (position #18).
However, based on the quality of chances they've created (20.2 xG) and conceded (32.4 xGA), statistical models predict they should have closer to 18.1 points (position #19).
This means they're getting 4.0 fewer points than their performance suggests - likely due to poor finishing (missing good chances) or unlucky goalkeeping (conceding from weak shots). The good news: This is usually temporary bad luck. Expect natural improvement as finishing/goalkeeping normalizes, without needing major tactical changes or expensive signings.
Bottom line: Don't panic about current position. Performance quality suggests improvement is coming naturally. Avoid hasty managerial changes - the issue is bad luck, not tactics.
Strategic Recommendations
Underperforming: Expected to improve naturally. Review finishing efficiency.
Key Insight: Expected position based on xG is #19, current position is #18.